Societe Generale Securities a sideways weak rebound after the panic vent layout-demonophobia

Societe Generale Securities: A shares will be weak rebound sideways after Sina financial panic vent layout Level2:A shares of sina finance client: the most extreme Kanpan profitable investors are looking at with industrial strategy team: overseas market weak rebound too horrible to look at during the Spring Festival — the way sideways, the core reason is that the global risk assets in a downward cycle of PE and EPS a double turn, is fed to the doves and supply side contraction brought about a rebound in oil prices, in the middle of the year. (1) full paixao pigeon takes time. Although the federal funds futures market suggests that the fed to raise interest rates during the year (March 2% probability of low probability of rate hikes, December is only 29.9%), but Yellen in the semi annual monetary policy statement is not dovish testimony. Therefore, the current Fed policy is still in accordance with the gradual hike path type deduction, only the rhythm slowed down before the monetary tightening is not expected to reverse, the pressure of global risk assets will continue. We determine the future of a quarter of weaker than expected data will eventually allow the fed to completely reverse the tightening of monetary policy in the years before and after the pace, and even turn to a new round of easing. (2) low oil prices have brought about many shocks. The OPEC meeting in June this year may be the key point to reverse the decline in oil prices. First, low oil prices and global aggregate demand directly lead to oil dollar sharply, especially for the economy to Middle East crude oil exports to bring huge trade surplus, equivalent to a sharp contraction of liquidity. Secondly, low oil prices lead to bankruptcy trading companies and a large number of bank bad debts, the European stock market slump and European banks will be more loan asset allocation in the exploitation of oil and gas and related industries and commodities prices have a great relationship. Third, the downturn in oil prices led to the bankruptcy risk of the backbone enterprises in Brazil, Russia and other resource countries, thereby enhancing the probability of regional financial crisis. The key of the late oil price rebound is when the excess capacity is cleared, and the OPEC meeting in June this year, whether countries can shelve differences and limit production value. Weak dollar releases RMB depreciation pressure, the main contradiction of market return to reform and fundamentals. (1) the dollar index dropped significantly, the offshore renminbi dollar fell to 6.50, a short-term capital outflow pressure is expected to weaken, on the other hand, given the central bank monetary policy China interim more operating space, worry about pre cut interest rates drop quasi devaluation pressure intensified concerns weakened. (2) before the outbreak of the major banks notes as well as the Spring Festival disturbance, leading to a surge in interest rate instruments has come to an end, and the post peak bill discount rate is lower than the February 1st dropped to about 3.7% 60bp. (3) according to the investigation and estimation of some commercial banks, the credit was close to 2 trillion in January. Therefore, if the A shares plummeted in January largely due to domestic liquidity pessimism, then at least in the short term the impact has been released relatively well and even excessive reaction, the market will influence the core variables later evolved from liquidity caused by the supply side reform fundamentals expected. Beware of the primary task of the "war of annihilation" of "supply side structural reform" – to resolve excess capacity and eliminate zombie Enterprises

兴业证券:A股将以横盘方式弱反弹 恐慌宣泄之后再布局 新浪财经Level2:A股极速看盘 新浪财经客户端:最赚钱的投资者都在用   兴业策略团队   展望:横盘方式演绎的弱反弹   ――春节期间海外市场惨不忍睹,核心原因在于全球风险资产处于PE和EPS双杀的下行周期,转机在于美联储全面走向鸽派和供给端收缩带来的油价反弹,大约在年中。(1)全面鸽派尚需时日。虽然联邦基金期货市场显示美联储年内加息概率低(3月加息概率2%,12月也仅为29.9%),但耶伦在半年度货币政策证词中的表态不够鸽派。因此,目前美联储的政策仍按照渐进式的加息路径演绎,只是节奏上有所放缓,在货币收紧这一预期未扭转之前,对于全球风险资产的承压仍将延续。我们判断未来一个季度弱于预期的数据会最终使得美联储在年中前后彻底扭转货币政策收紧的步伐,甚至转向新一轮的宽松。(2)低油价带来多方面冲击,今年6月的OPEC例会可能成为扭转油价颓势的关键时间点。第一,油价低迷和全球总需求疲软直接导致石油美元规模的大幅萎缩,尤其是对于中东等以原油出口带来巨额贸易顺差的经济体,相当于流动性的剧烈紧缩。第二,低油价导致交易公司破产以及大量的银行坏账,本轮欧洲股市的暴跌与欧洲银行较多地将贷款资产配置于油气开采和与大宗价格有关的行业领域有很大的关系。第三,油价低迷导致巴西、俄罗斯等资源国的支柱企业破产风险,进而提升区域性金融危机的概率。后期油价反弹的关键在于过剩产能何时出清,以及今年6月OPEC例会各国能否搁置分歧、限产保价。   ――弱美元释放人民币贬值压力,行情主要矛盾回归改革和基本面。(1)美元指数明显回落,美元兑离岸人民币回落至6.50,一方面短期资本流出压力有望减弱,另一方面,给予中国央行货币政策中期更大的操作空间,前期担心降息降准加剧贬值压力的顾虑有所减弱。(2)之前多家银行爆发的票据大案以及春节扰动,导致票据利率的飙升已告一段落,票据直贴和转帖利率较2月1日的峰值回落了60bp至3.7%左右。(3)根据对部分商业银行的调研估算,1月信贷投放接近2万亿。因此,如果说A股1月份的暴跌很大程度上源于对国内流动性的悲观预期,那么至少短期这一冲击已释放的相对充分甚至过度反应,后期影响行情的核心变量将由流动性演变为供给侧改革引发的基本面预期。需要当心“供给侧结构性改革”的“歼灭战”的首要任务――化解过剩产能、淘汰僵尸企业所付出的“阵痛”,将导致信用风险、破产风险和失业压力上升,可以跟踪信用利差,当前处于历史低位的信用利差显然是不正常的,信用债市场的风险远未释放充分。   ――2月份行情的节奏仍按《血战长津湖》的节奏,最终大概率演绎成一段横盘式的弱反弹。如果把1月中旬到3月份两会之前这段时间的行情比作血战长津湖,在1月中下旬遭遇极端寒流,导致战局惨烈过后,2月份是一个喘息期,预计春节后首个交易日低开后,指数仍有望演绎修复性的反弹,但空间和时间相对有限,且反弹过程攻防转换的波折较多,并最终很可能演绎成一段横盘式的弱反弹。(1)短期人民币和港币汇率趋于稳定,出幺蛾子的概率下降。(2)2月份上涨概率较大。一方面,指数连续暴跌的可能性小。自我国实行涨跌停板制度以来,以上证综指为例,此前共出现过四次月跌幅超过20%的情况,而次月均录得正收益。另一方面,上证综指过去25年中仅有6次在2月份录得负收益,平均涨幅3.28%。(3)两会前对于改革的预期会重新升温,即便是老调重弹也有助市场情绪回稳。反弹过程多波折,并最终演绎成一段横盘式的弱反弹的原因包括:(1)散户主导的市场注重技术分析,前期的成交密集区易成为后期反弹的阻力区。(3)去产能对于经济的冲击影响风险偏好、海外市场高波动率的风险阶段。   ――中期而言,我们重申慎行2016,打好歼灭战的观点,2月份的反弹只是市场阶段性风险释放过后的一段喘息期,从未来3-6个月的维度来看,仍需要提防风险溢价上升的趋势。投资者需要对于A股行情在低位徘徊、去伪存真、化解泡沫、夯实基础,多一份理性和理解,休整是为了更好地远行。2016年行情,需要充分衡量风险收益比, 主动择时,仓位灵活,方能获得超额收益。风险溢价上升的中期趋势下,再考虑到A股市场2016年的四个特征:泡沫市、波动市、结构市、扩容市,经历连续数年投资回报的“大年”之后, 2016年大概率是个“小年”,切忌盲目乐观、盲目追涨杀跌,打好歼灭战其实是立足于打好“小心被歼灭”战。   投资策略:交易性选手博弈的窗口期   ――2月份反弹行情的时间和空间都很弱,因此,操作策略立足“斯诺克打法”进行防守反击,在市场恐慌宣泄之后再布局,多在“人少的地方”淘淘金,精选风险收益匹配度高的机会。(1)交易型选手的两种打法:博弈最强的和最弱个股:第一,选择流动性好、跌幅乖离率大、波动率下降的超跌股博弈反弹。第二,博弈资源股为代表的周期股,短期有政策催化剂和产品价格反弹的契机,机构配置低、流动性好,前期逆势抗跌。(2)公募基金为代表的机构投资者:第一,利用反弹调整持仓结构,牛市重势,熊市重质。第二,围绕自身的重仓股做波段。(3)对于保险为代表的资金量偏大且考核绝对收益的投资者,策略的核心不在于逆势博弈反弹,而是在控制权益仓位的前提下,大浪淘沙,配置内生增长较快、且现金流好的企业,全年仍有望获得绝对收益。   具体投资机会上,可围绕兴业年度策略《打好歼灭战》中,基于“立新+破旧”思路,优选的四大投资领域,尤其是围绕一些已深入研究且风险收益匹配度较好的标的股票进行波段操作。   政策主导型机会――(1)避险情绪推动黄金价格上涨,铅、锌、锡等金属也表现不俗。(2)朝鲜半岛局势恶化,军工股躁动的催化剂出现。(3)国内商品期货持续反弹,“两会”前后供给侧改革、过剩产能化解、国企改革的政策落实将增多,叠加季节性补库存。(4)“人少的地方”,机构严重低配,最不济也有相对收益,另外转型壳资源存在博弈价值。   现代服务业――立足人口结构转变,迎接消费升级新时代,今年春节档初一到初六电影合计票房达30亿元,影视传媒板块有望再度活跃。此外,医疗保健、教育、体育、文化等行业前景光明,结合大股东维护股价的意愿和能力优选个股做波段。   “新股”相关机会――新股、次新股。   格外小心地博弈“科技股”跌深反弹――高估值成长股的“去泡沫”之路可能还要很长,但是,阶段性“多杀多”杀跌动能充分释放之后,可以结合后续行业是否有更新更炫的发展前景以及大股东是否有能力和意愿积极维护股价,从而精选个股做交易。   春节期间,全球市场表现出明显的避险情绪:1)主要风险资产全球主要股指表现疲弱,几乎所有股指均在春节期间收跌,表现最差的日本股市一周大跌了11%。2)发达国家10年期国债收益率绝大多数下行;3)美元指数回落1%,资金流向避险货币日元和欧元等,离岸人民币升值0.9%;4)大宗商品中黄金和白银价格都出现了大幅上涨,黄金价格创7年最大单周涨幅,原油、铜、铝等原材料收跌。 新浪声明:新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: