Zhu Baoliang China has not entered the liquidity trap-norton disk doctor

Zhu Baoliang: at present, China has not entered the liquidity trap author Zhu Baoliang (National Information Center, director of economic forecasting, China and the new interim experts) whether there is a liquidity trap in China? The answer is: does not exist! Cause this problem has been widely discussed in the background: the narrow money (M1) and broad money (M2) growth of the "price scissors" in July further expanded to 15.2 percentage points, showed that companies seem more willing to demand deposits lying in the account and not for business expansion. I made three judgments: first, China’s monetary policy is still effective. China did not enter the liquidity trap. Liquidity trap needs to meet two conditions: first, the short-term market interest rates fell to zero; the two is the marginal rate of return on investment is zero. This increases the money supply does not further reduce interest rates, businesses and residents will not increase investment and consumption, resulting in liquidity trap. At present, these two kinds of situations have not appeared in our country, the short-term market interest rate of our country is still about 2.3%, and the marginal rate of return is about 4%. Compared with the situation abroad, China’s monetary policy is still effective. From the international point of view, when the normal monetary policy is no longer valid, quantitative easing and other unconventional monetary policy came into being. Until the latter derived from quantitative qualitative easing, the central bank directly buy a bond or a stock currency mechanism. For example, the Fed’s direct purchase of Fannie and Freddie (Fannie and Freddie) bonds, the Bank of Japan to buy stocks directly put money to the enterprise, and even take a negative interest rate policy. It can be seen, even if some countries to implement zero interest rates or negative interest rates, the role of monetary policy has been very small, unconventional monetary policy can still play a role. In this regard, a view that the quantification of qualitative easing of monetary policy to asset prices, so as to drive the stock, real estate, the bond market actively, improve the enterprise’s balance sheet, to promote the growth of investment and consumption. Second, the marginal effect of monetary policy is declining. Around the world, some countries and regions have entered a liquidity trap, including Switzerland, 6 countries have entered the era of negative interest rates. Among them, the typical example is japan. Japan’s fiscal deficit is equivalent to 4 times the country’s GDP, which makes it into the monetary policy is useless, fiscal policy can not be used, the embarrassing situation. In China, the marginal return on investment continues to decline. According to the calculation, in 2015, China investment reached 55 trillion last year, more than 29 trillion of the amount of fixed capital formation, but the new output is less than 5 trillion, is formed in every 10 yuan of investment, or capital increase of 6.7 yuan, 1 yuan to output. The decline of the investment efficiency leads to the decrease of the effect of monetary policy, which makes China’s monetary policy is in a dilemma. If you continue to add money, funds are likely not to enter the real economy, but the choice of real estate, fried bonds, fried goods, which led to a new round of asset price bubbles. If we do not expand the currency, the economic growth rate will decline rapidly. At present, the adoption of prudent monetary policy, is no longer the choice of large-scale currency is undoubtedly correct. Third, in the continuation of the theory相关的主题文章: